Five DeepTech and National Security Themes Defining 2026

We just returned from Geodesic’s annual Forum and a weeklong trip to Tokyo, Japan, and one theme echoed across government, corporate, and founder conversations: the importance of alliances in building a deeptech company. There is a real interest in building partnership pathways that can work with venture-backed companies. Defense budgets are increasingly flowing to teams that deliver production-level output at commercial speed across sectors such as semiconductors, compute, space, and AI.

We at the Geodesic Alliance Fund invest at the intersection of deeptech and national security and our network across allied nations, especially the US and Japan, shapes how we see these markets. Here are the five themes we’re watching closely in 2026,  and why they matter for the founders and defense decision-makers shaping what comes next.

1. Countries and Allies Build Their Own AI Stacks

Without control of critical AI infrastructure, dependence becomes structural. Data centers, domestic chip partnerships, and models and systems tailored to national security needs are all key focus areas for the United States and our allies.

The implication for the semiconductor ecosystem is direct: advanced packaging, thermal management, and power delivery for AI accelerators have moved from optional to strategic—especially at the edge and in contested environments.

2. National Security AI Labs Deliver

Commercial AI labs optimize for consumer and enterprise markets. That is where the revenue is, and it has left a gap for systems designed for defense operations.

In 2026, the first credible national security AI labs will deliver at meaningful scale. These will not be repackaged consumer models. They will be purpose-built systems that ingest sensor data from hundreds of platforms in near real time, reason under uncertainty with degraded communications, and generate multi-domain courses of action quickly, including when networks fail.

3. Maritime Autonomy Moves from Prototype to Production

The Indo-Pacific is roughly 70% water, and the logistics and security challenge is immense. Undersea cables carry about 95% of global data traffic. Shipping lanes support trillions of dollars in annual trade.

2026 is the year maritime autonomy moves from compelling demonstrations to sustained production contracts. We are already seeing a growing maritime startup ecosystem – autonomous surface vessels for resupply, ISR, and mine countermeasures, alongside underwater vehicles that map and protect subsea infrastructure.

Companies in this category are already fielding systems with the U.S. Navy and allied forces. And because allied navies face similar constraints, coordinated procurement across U.S. and Japanese or Australian frameworks can materially improve unit economics.

4. Space is Becoming a Contested, Dynamic Environment

Space has been one of the clearest examples of a strong dual-use business with real commercial and government revenue streams. The upcoming SpaceX IPO is a testament to the market potential of that.

Space is becoming increasingly more contested – satellites today are tracked, jammed, and potentially targeted. The future of space is dynamic – satellites are no longer static, one-time use objects, but will be mobile, with capabilities to move between different orbits. In addition, they will be upgradeable with the ability to change out payloads or sensors depending on the mission’s use case.

5. Japan Builds a Partnership Model with Allied Startups

Japan’s defense budget has crossed $60B this fiscal year—a nearly 5% increase—and remains on track to reach 2% of GDP by 2027. The more important question is how Japan can work to deploy that capital domestically as well as with allies like the United States.

Defense Minister Koizumi was direct in January: the alliance must act with “urgency and speed” in response to an “increasingly severe security environment.” METI and the Ministry of Defense are adopting elements of the DIU playbook: new contracting mechanisms, faster timelines, and lower barriers to entry. The remaining variable is execution.

If this works, coordinated procurement—selling to both the Pentagon and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces through aligned frameworks—can materially change unit economics for venture-backed companies. Allied industrial capacity paired with technology advantages will be a structural advantage for the startups and companies that can work within this framework.

Why This Matters

The next decade of deeptech will be built on alliances, those between nations, between procurement systems, and between investors and companies who move with urgency.

These five themes share one core message: no single company (or country) wins alone.

Geodesic’s Alliance Fund invests in Seed, Series A, and B companies where these trends converge and build durable, long-term advantages. If you’re a founder working in any of these areas — or a decision-maker thinking about how to accelerate them — we’d love to connect.